Tech predictions for 2026, presented without nuance, context, or evidence

I wrote this post as an exercise during a meeting of IndieWebClub Bangalore.

I’m writing these in order, from most likely to happen to least likely.

  • GTA6 becomes the biggest game release of the year, breaking all previous sales records on launch day.
  • LLMs become a load-bearing part of all developer workflows. A little less than half of all commits on Github in 2026 are generated using coding assistants.
  • A new open-world 3D Mario game is announced in the summer and released in the holiday season.
  • The Playstation 6 is not announced.
  • Apple turns the Mac Studio into a dedicated computer for running LLMs and machine-learning models, including support for rack mounting and disgusting amounts of RAM. MLX becomes the most widely supported method of running open-weights LLMs.
  • Hardware to run local LLMs becomes more affordable, and multiple startups make it even easier with “it just works” boxes you can buy and stash in a corner of your office. This massively cuts into OpenAI and Anthropic’s revenues.
  • The launch of the new Steam Machine, along with multiple new SteamOS-based handhelds, finally pushes Linux market-share in the Steam hardware survey to about 5%.
  • Folding phones make up for at least 20% of all new smartphone sales.
  • Apple releases a folding iPhone.
  • The most egregious design and accessibility sins caused by Liquid Glass are slowly rolled back over the course of the year.
  • Spotify launches fully AI generated podcasts. The product is discontinued after massive public backlash.
  • A new, better version of Siri is released. It actually works as advertised.
  • The new, improved version of Siri is immediately compromised via prompt injection attacks within 4-6 weeks of release.
  • Multiple world governments—led by the EU—prohibit the use of American software and cloud services for government work.
  • Apple and Microsoft ship competent local LLMs built into Windows and macOS.
  • Apple and Google are forced to allow side-loading on all their devices after a massive antitrust lawsuit brought on by a coalition of tech companies and advocacy organizations. The change is region-locked to the EU, US, Japan, South Korea, and China.
  • Microsoft buys OpenAI.